Indyref2 Will Be Sturgeon’s Swan Song

Nicola Surgeon described the 2014 Scottish Independence referendum as a ‘once in a generation event’. Now in 2017 Sturgeon has moved to initiate a second vote, and has received the backing of the Scottish Parliament in doing so.

Her justification for this is the UK’s exit from the EU. This is an absurd excuse at best. Scotland voted to remain in the UK back in 2014, in the knowledge a Brexit referendum was on the cards. If they didn’t want to abide by UK wide decisions, Scotland could have left back in 2014.

It’s also hard to believe Sturgeon considers Westminster too far afield from Scotland to properly represent Scottish interests, yet she thinks the European parliament would be capable of doing just that. It’s not intellectually honest, but Sturgeon will use any means to destroy the United Kingdom. Having said that I think the Scottish people have the right to a referendum, even if the justifications are shaky.

When this referendum is called, it will be another remain vote. Sturgeon will be disgraced, the SNP will cease to have any raison d’être, and the issue of Scottish independence will be settled for (hopefully) a generation.

The SNP failed the first time round to deliver a plan that offered enough security for the Scottish people. Their economic plans were predicated on oil prices rising to $120 a barrel and since those plans the price of a barrel of oil has dropped to as little as $30.

oil prices

The European Union have confirmed Scotland will have to re-apply for membership, and Spain have confirmed they will veto Scotland’s application. Scotland would be a country without a currency, forced to be a squatter to sterling, with no control over monetary policy.

Now more than ever a Scottish exit from the UK would lead to uncertainty and hardship for the nation. If Scotland ever managed to join the EU, it would necessitate a hard border between England and Scotland. If it failed to gain entry it would be a country alone in the world.

But the main reason indyref2 will result in a remain vote is fairly simple.

44.7% of voters opted for independence the first time round. 40% of Scots voted to leave the EU. If we assume that even 20% of the original independence voters went on to support Brexit, then we must discount them from voting for independence a second time, since to do so would be a vote to re-join the EU.

These calculations leave us with 35% of people who will vote for independence a second time. This figure doesn’t account for those put off by the uncertain conditions independence will mean post-Brexit, nor those who wont turnout a second time, nor those who have changed their minds. Similarly it doesn’t account for ‘in’ voters who have reversed their position since the first referendum, but such people would have to exist in unprecedented numbers to have any effect.

Sturgeon has been pretending to be an anti-unionist Labour politician for some time. Recent events reveal she’s willing to say whatever is more likely to prompt a Scottish breakaway.

Let’s have a second referendum, it will only be a good thing for those who value Scotland’s relationship to the rest of the UK.

 

 

 

 

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